Slow train coming: the developing new target
Scientists discuss the 1.5C limit to global temperature rise
Robert McSweeney, Roz Pidcock, Carbon Brief
, December 10, 2015 Many observers, comments and quotes on 1.5ºC.
But note the systematic understatement and indeed unawareness of the threat. Sir David King, for example (the UK’s Foreign Secretary’s Special Representative for Climate Change), notes that in the 2003 heatwave in Central Europe “a large number of people died” —not the 70,000 that have been formally counted. Worse, he still imagines, reflecting general opinion, that higher temperatures simply have a higher impact: zero awareness of nonlinear change: how beyond the ill-charted “tipping points”, we are probably looking at runaway global warming, that will render vast swaths of the planet uninhabitable and much of the rest insufferable.
Paris UN Climate Conference 2015: Australia backs target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees
Peter Hannam and Tom Arup, The Sydney Morning Herald, December 12, 2015
The concession, extracted from Australia by the tiny Caribbean island nation of St Lucia and South Africa, followed lengthy negotiations in Paris aimed at resolving differences over how to treat carbon dioxide emissions
Germany backs island nations’ bid for 1.5 degrees target
Dagmar Dehmer & Samuel Morgan, Euractive (from Der Spiegel), December 04, 2015
The international community wants to agree on a two degree limit at the COP21 summit, but smaller island-nations want a 1.5 degree limit - and they will enjoy German support
Paris climate talks: vulnerable countries demand 1.5C warming limit
John Vidal & Fionna Harvey, The Guardian, November 11, 2015
Countries most at risk from climate change warn of looming ‘disaster’ as they break from major blocs to call for more ambitious temperature target
Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal
David Victor & Charles Kennel, Nature, October 01, 2014
Average global temperature is not a good indicator of planetary health. Track a range of vital signs instead
Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs
K. Frieler, M. Meinshausen, A. Golly, M. Mengel, K. Lebek, S. Donner & O. Hoegh-Guldberg, Nature Climate Change, August 01, 2012
Mass coral bleaching events have become a widespread phenomenon and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Preserving >10% of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting warming to below 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels
What will it take to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees C?
Global Catholic Climate Movement, 2015
The 1.5°C marker pathway is endorsed by the Pope and many religious leaders. The last IPCC report said feasible scenarios are characterized by immediate mitigation action; the rapid upscaling of the full portfolio of mitigation technologies; and development along a low‐energy demand trajectory
Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
Joeri Rogelj, Gunnar Luderer, Robert Pietzcker, Elmar Kriegler, Michiel Schaeffer, Volker Krey & Keywan Riahiy, Nature Climate Change, February 13, 2015
Many countries advocate limiting warming to below 1.5 °C. Integrated energy–economy–environment scenarios that keep warming to below 1.5 °C by 2100 are in many aspects similar to 2 °C-consistent scenarios, but show a faster scale-up of mitigation action in most sectors
The exit strategy
Myles Allen, David Frame, Katja Frieler, William Hare, Chris Huntingford, Chris Jones, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Malte Meinshausen, Nicolai Meinshausen & Sarah Raper, Nature Reports Climate Change, 2015
Emissions targets must be placed in the context of a cumulative carbon budget if we are to avoid dangerous climate change.
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